At the peak of the summer season, the price of thermal coal has recently fallen against the trend, and the tight supply of thermal coal is also easing. The China Electricity Council recently revealed that as of early July, the average coal inventory of key power generation companies in China has reached 17 days. This data has decreased by one day compared to the end of June, but the tense situation has eased compared to April and May, and is higher than the warning line of about 10 days.

According to data released by China Electricity Council, the coal inventory of key power plants in China is currently available for 17 days, while at the end of May, the coal inventory of Central China Power Grid was at a level of about eight to nine days, below the 10 day warning line.

In addition, coal prices have ended their continuous rise for nearly four months and started to decline. According to data from the Shipping Coal Network, the Bohai Rim Thermal Coal Index has been declining for three consecutive weeks.

Previously, State Grid Corporation of China had predicted that this summer may experience the largest "power shortage" since 2004, but currently the situation is not as severe as expected. Due to heavy rainfall in the North China region this year, the North China Power Grid only experienced the peak electricity load this summer on July 11th and has smoothly passed it. In previous years, the region usually broke through its historical peak in June.

However, electricity consumption remains tight in some areas, and the Central China Power Grid refreshed its electricity load for three consecutive days on July 20th, 21st, and 22nd.

Xue Jing, Director of the Statistical Information Department of China Electricity Council, said that whether the peak electricity consumption this summer can be smoothly passed depends on the future weather conditions. Although the current coal inventory will continue to decline, the momentum of high energy consumption and rapid growth in electricity consumption has "subsided", and the basic power supply situation is still guaranteed.

　　Why is the inventory of coal during peak electricity consumption not decreasing but increasing instead?

Why does the inventory of electricity coal increase instead of decrease during the peak electricity consumption period, and the tense situation of electricity coal is actually eased? Xue Jing told reporters that the main reason is the "power shortage" phenomenon that occurred during the off-season in April and May, and many power companies increased coal storage to cope with the summer peak. Shandong power generation companies completed coal reserves 40-60 days in advance, and the large amount of procurement at that time also raised coal prices. Now, the power plants are mainly purchasing electricity coal to cope with the off-season in September, so the current amount of electricity coal procurement has actually decreased, and electricity coal prices have also come down. In addition, the severe coal shortage in Central China in July resulted in a significant increase in hydroelectric power output, which also eased the region's previous demand for coal for electricity.

A person from a local power company stated that the maintenance of the Daqin Railway in April and May, as well as the maintenance of ports along the coast of Zhejiang, collectively led to a tight coal supply in the early stages due to various factors. Currently, with the decrease in demand, freight rates are also decreasing, resulting in lower coal prices and guaranteed inventory. (Source: New Beijing News)